From War to Climate Crisis:
Complex Variables Hinder ASEAN Food Security
Written by: Aida Rachmawati & Wendi Williyanto
The Present Circumstances of Food Security in ASEAN
Food security is seen from the needed number of essential types and food available regularly. For instance, East and Southeast Asia highly depend on meat imports and live animals. On the other hand, poultry meat exports in Asia account for about 13.27% of the global total (Lin et al., 2022). Singapore is one of the countries that rely on poultry meat exports. 34% of Singapore’s chicken supply comes from Malaysia. However, Singapore’s food availability is threatened because, on June 1, 2022, Malaysia imposed a ban on chicken exports to stabilize prices and food availability for chicken supplies in Malaysia (Heng, 2022).
On the other hand, Malaysia still imports 60% of its food needs (Zulkifli, 2022). The Malaysian government also has to yet meet its needs of domestic food production to support the commodity exports. Malaysia’s export value is only RM33 billion, while its import value is RM55 billion. This condition can lead to a trade deficit. Therefore, Malaysia can cut its food import budget and allocate it to medium to long-term investment activities in agriculture and food-based research in Malaysia to protect the economy and domestic food supply (MalayMail, 2022).
Food Price Inflation and the Effects
Rising global inflation could weaken ASEAN’s economic recovery in 2022. The average inflation rate in ASEAN rose from 3.1% in December 2021 to 4.7% in April 2022, compared to 0.9% in January 2021 (Suvannaphakdy, 2022). Furthermore, food price inflation has numerous repercussions in ASEAN.
- Cause food insecurity
The most crucial impact of the Russia-Ukrainian war is access to food. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) scenario estimates that the global market could lose 30% of the world’s cereal exports and access to fertilizers is very low. The scarcity could increase food prices and food insecurity as 50 countries depend on 30% of wheat and corn from Russia and Ukraine. In addition, 30 countries rely on Russia and Ukraine for 50% of grain exports (Seeley, 2022).
ASEAN is the region that consumes the most rice and has two of the three global rice exporters, namely Vietnam and Thailand. Although rice is the main commodity, the ASEAN region remains dependent on the global market for the consumption of wheat and corn. As the most populous country in ASEAN, Indonesia experienced an increase in wheat imports by 11 million tons in 2019 from only 4.8 million tons in 2010. The use of wheat in Indonesia is the main ingredient for producing noodles (70%), bread (20%), and cakes or biscuits (10%) (Montesclaros & Caballero-Anthony, 2022). Therefore, the ban on wheat exports can affect food prices and food supply chains in ASEAN.
- Impact on low-income households
Food inflation has a more detrimental impact on the poor, especially in fulfilling nutritious food. The countries most affected by rising food prices are the countries most vulnerable to economic crises and have large populations in poverty, such as Myanmar, the poorest country in Southeast Asia with a GDP per capita of USD 1,409.70 by 2022 (International Monetary Fund, 2022). In this case, short-term food aid is needed to prevent extreme hunger. Food resource assistance in Myanmar includes low-quality rice, beans, and palm oil. These commodities do not have the potential to cause large price distortions in the food market (International Food Policy Research Institute, 2021).
- Long-lasting impact on children’s health
Food price inflation is increasing the number of malnourished people in ASEAN. According to the World Bank data, the share of the malnourished population in 2019 ranged from 5.3% in Laos to 6.5% in Indonesia, 6.7% in Vietnam, 7.6% in Myanmar, 8.2% in Thailand, and 9.4% in the Philippines. Globally in 2020, it is estimated that 22% of children under five are stunted, 6.7% are underweight, and 5.7% are overweight. Nearly 3.1 billion people could not afford healthy food in 2020. This phenomenon is 112 million more than in 2019, reflecting consumer food price inflation (FAO, 2022).
International Political Unrest & Environmental Destruction: A Shattered Food System
Simultaneously with the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine pushed commodity prices higher and reduced food security worldwide. In March 2022, Russia announced a temporary ban on exports of grains and fertilizers, leading to supply shortages and further destabilization of the market (Council of the EU and the European Council, 2022). According to the United Nations, global food prices in May 2022 were almost 30% higher than last year. The Commodity Markets Outlook 2022 also stated that the Ukraine-Russia war worsened food prices by increasing it up to 40% with the combined pandemic and climate change effects.
Since many commodities are imported from Russia and Ukraine, it has become a concern for Southeast Asia’s food security. In 2020, Ukraine exported $708 million to Indonesia, accounting for 25% of imports; $92 million to Malaysia, 23% of imports, and $131 million to Thailand, about 17% of imports. Nearly 75% of Indonesia’s imports from Ukraine are cereals, including wheat. In 2021, Indonesia will import 3.07 million tons of wheat from Ukraine. In 2020, Ukraine will be the largest source of grains for Southeast Asia’s most populous country and the largest in 2021 (Abuza, 2022). Hence, the political unrest in Russia and Ukraine has a domino effect on the Southeast Asia food chain.
In terms of climate change, extreme heat, bad weather, and drought, without effective adaptation, global crop yields could decline by 30% by 2050 (Hobert & Negra, 2020). Countries that are already grappling with conflict, pollution, deforestation, and other challenges will likely suffer from this impact. The 2 billion people without access to sufficient food, including small farmers and others living in poverty, will be the hardest hit. According to the State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World report, nearly 750 million people experienced severe food insecurity in 2019, and the number of people who are malnourished or food insecure is increasing, with climate shocks as a major contributor (FAO, 2022). The problem of overpopulation, projected to reach 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100 from the current 7.6 billion, also threatens the world’s food supply and is vulnerable to running out of food around 2027 (Suri, 2022).
Why Have Climatic Crises Disrupted ASEAN’s Food Security?
The main factors driving the adverse impact on agricultural productivity are rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns. In terms of future food security, higher temperatures will impact changes in agricultural yields due to rising temperatures, shifts in season length, increased salinity in coastal areas, crop failure, pest and disease outbreaks–as well sea-level rise that can cause harvests failure in the agricultural sector (Deloitte Southeast Asia Innovation Team, 2022).
Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain issues, and soaring inflation, global food prices have risen since mid-2020 and are now at all-time highs. In 36 countries, food inflation is 15% or higher, causing significant problems for low-income families who spend more than 50% of their income on food (Husain, 2022). Previously, Russia and Ukraine supplied about 30% of wheat at stable global market prices. Thus, when the wheat export blockade occurs, it causes food inflation which has wide implications for importing countries. Thirty-six countries rely on them to import wheat (Al Jazeera, 2022) .
The shock of the Russia-Ukraine war shows that food insecurity is also an issue of accessibility and affordability (Husain, 2022). To keep trade flowing and minimize disruption to supply chains, the World Trade Organization (WTO) plays a role in reducing barriers for companies to restructure supply chains. In mid-April 2022, the heads of the World Trade Organization and the United Nations’ World Food Program issued a joint statement calling on countries to keep trade open and avoid restrictive measures such as bans on food exports or fertilizers. Then, the ASEAN Plus Three Emergency Rice Reserve (APTERR) is activated to prevent rice price inflation, price speculation, and trade protectionism in member countries (Montesclaros & Caballero-Anthony, 2022). In addition, several approaches may be applied in ASEAN to break the hindrance of food security such as the adoption of a circular economy, resilient agricultural system, and proactive involvement in the dynamic of international political issues.
The Shift from the Linear to the Circular Economy Model
The implementation of the circular economy model is one of the tools that ASEAN may use to address the issue of food insecurity. ASEAN is a heterogeneous region made up of ten countries at various stages of development. Therefore, ASEAN’s development agenda should prioritize the sustainable approach, such as the circular economy model. Not only it creates a sustainable environment, it also ensures food accessibility due to stable climate, fertile land, and water, all of which play a crucial role in a sustainable food system. However, most ASEAN countries adopted the linear growth model of take-make-use-dispose, which contributes to the climate crises, affecting the stability of food supply and access.
According to the United Nations Environment Report (2017), ASEAN waste volume is increasing, with municipal solid waste as the major problem. Indonesia generates the most municipal waste at 64.000.000 tonnes per year, followed by Thailand (26.770.000 tonnes), Viet Nam (22.020.000 tonnes), the Philippines (14.660.000 tonnes), and Malaysia (12.840.000 tonnes). The majority of waste generated in ASEAN countries are organic waste, plastic, paper, glass, and metal (Jain, 2017). It is said that the implementation of the circular economy model is urgently required owing to the massive waste created, which is causing climate crises and eventually disrupting the food system.
Circular economy works by extending the life cycle of goods and recycling waste to generate new products, moving the waste from the end of the supply chain to the beginning. Furthermore, circular economy also contributes to the accomplishment of the ASEAN agenda on energy transition. Agricultural waste are mostly crop stalks, leaves, roots, fruit peels, and seed/nut shells that are generally thrown or burnt but might be a valuable source of feedstock material in practice (Tripathi et al., 2019). Through recycling agricultural waste, ASEAN has the potential to produce biomass as a low-carbon energy source. As a result, the goals of reducing carbon footprints, maintaining a stable climate, cultivating fertile land, and providing clean water will be met. Ultimately, the ASEAN food security will be preserved, and there is a possibility that ASEAN citizens will have access to nutritious foods.
The Construction of A Resilient Agricultural System
Not only recontextualizing the use of the linear economic model and shifting to the circular one, the development of a resilient agriculture system also plays a crucial role in breaking the hindrance of food security in ASEAN. Adopting the FAO framework to construct a resilient agricultural system, ASEAN member state countries should intensify the empowerment of local farmers. It could be achieved through learning by doing activity to discuss, examine, modify, and experiment with new agricultural management concepts.
Local farmers can investigate a wide range of topics through this approach, including management of soil fertility and water resources; methods of local varietal selection and seed quality issues; risks associated with toxic pesticides and implementation of low toxicity alternatives and integrated pest management; farm management and marketing skills; and diversification of farming systems (FAO, n.d.). Thus, it will support local farmers to be agile with the change.
Active Involve in International Political Dynamic
In a political sense, ASEAN needs to actively participate in the dynamic of international politics to support stability at the international level since the food system is vulnerable. It is shown by the impact of the Russia and Ukraine war on food price increases, leading to food insecurity. Hence, ASEAN needs to engage on international level through diplomacy, dialogue, and forum to support stability, particularly Russia-Ukraine conflict resolution. The visit of Indonesian President Joko Widodo to Russia and Ukraine is an example of how Southeast Asia countries might contribute to stabilizing global political volatility. As one of ASEAN’s members, Indonesia should promote the idea of the ASEAN Way to foster peace by accommodating rather than confronting means. However, instead of pragmatism, the involvement of ASEAN on an international level should be oriented to the common interest — achieving food security.
Conclusion
Amid the uncertainties surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war and the dynamic of climate crises, ASEAN member countries are experiencing the consequences, notably the danger to food security in ASEAN, as seen by the region’s food price inflation. The food system has multifacet dimensions, making it vulnerable if one of the variables gets interrupted. Hence, intensified collaboration and coordination among member states in the inter- and intra-region should be prioritized to ensure food availability in ASEAN.
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